Saturday, August 4, 2012

WINTER 2005-06 - EXPERIMENTS 1,2,3 WITH A GREAT TIP



Experiment 1:

My first stock purchase (not investment) was 20 shares of Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited at Rs. 245.00/-.

Reason for Purchase:

Since Nafiz had bought this one, he used Alt+Tab to watch the price of this stock regularly. He told us that it was oscillating in the range of 230 to 270.

What I did:

I bought it at 245 in December 2005, the very next day it rose to 249 to blossom my face through happiness, but only to fell down to 220 levels. Thereafter, it was oscillating in the range of 220 to my break-even (instead of 270) for a month’s period. Finally, I sold it in February 2006 at the same 249.

Experience learned:

Nothing

Experience we can learn from this experiment:

Never buy or sell a stock, just because other person (including Warren Buffet) is doing it.
Do your own research.



Experiment 2:

Scrip: Ashok Leyland

Reason for Purchase:

Since I have learned nothing from my earlier experiment, I was tracking the same stocks which the other three musketeers (Nafiz, Barath & Mahesh) were tracking.

What I did:

I bought it at 31 levels in January 2006. It went down to 28 levels and was trading in the range of 28-30. Some time in the next month, it reached my break-even (Purchase Price +Brokerage +Taxes).  As I was very much influenced by Break-Even Theory*, I have sold it immediately at my break-even, just to watch it rose from 70% from those levels in next 3 months. 

* Break-Even Theory is not an accredited one, but it’s the top most influential theory in Stock Markets because most of the active participants are traders subject to high emotions by psychology.

Experience learned:

Since, In this case I have not done any research and just made the transactions by looking at the ticker price, I have learned NOTHING in losing an opportunity of 70% profit.

Experience we can learn from this experiment:

If YOU have well researched a stock and YOU are pretty much aware that it is grossly undervalued, the only thing you require is PATIENCE to reap the fruitful rewards.

Patience is the Key for Stocks Treasure.

“Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit earth”



Experiment 3:

Scrips: Williamson Magor & KCP Sugar

Reason for day-trading:

Since, Nafiz is an active day-trader who stares at the best 5 quotes of nseindia’s website (those days, we have not opened an account in ICICI Direct) every second, we disciples just followed his foot-steps.

Further, the real motivation for day-trading came from the superstar status that comes along with the successful day-trader in predicting stock movements rather than the process of making very quick bucks.

What I did:

If I remember the date correctly, it is 29th December 2005, I sold 50 shares of Williamson Magor @ 42 and bought it back @ 41. HURRAY!!... My first intra-day is a success…

Once you tasted day-trading, whether u succeeded or failed, it is an ADDICTION like cigar butts… U can’t come out of it easily…

Since 1st January 2006 is Sunday, the next day-trading was on 02nd January, I sold 50 shares of KCPSUGIND (the stock code which I can never forget in my life) @ 522 and successfully bought it back @ 520…


WHAT TO SAY ABOUT MY FEELINGS… I AM THE NEW WARREN BUFFET… I AM THE GOD… But my mind voice said… “THAMBI, TEA INNUM VARALA…” (Even Telugu Pokkiri was not released by that time)…

Mahesh created a PPT “INTRA DAY SUPER STAR” “ELAMVAZHUDHI” like the “SUPER STAR “ “RAJNI” comes in RAJNI films…

The very next day i.e. 3rd January 2006, I came to office, after others had come. Everyone was busy looking the Best 5 Quotes of KCPSUGIND. I wondered why these guys are checking out this scrip so impatiently. While, I enquired they told Barath has sold 50 shares @ 535. My tempted young blood forced me to put a sell order for 50 shares @ 532. Barath to prove that he is also a youth put another sell order for 50 shares @ 532. We were pressing F5 key every 5 seconds and the price was around 540 levels. My heart beats @ 200 bps continuously ever since Sachin & Jadeja batting days. Suddenly, partner of our audit firm came there. That’s the time, we realized we are working in Audit firm, not in Stock Broking firm. The partner told us that our prestigious client is proposing for an IPO, so we have to sit late nights and stay in the client’s office to finish the work at the earliest.

The meeting went on till afternoon with our hands tied of not pressing F5 key. By the time, my watch shows it is already 02:30 p.m. When we checked out the price, I was totally devastated. It was quoting at 560.When we called our broker to place a buy order, he said the price was 572. My heart busted. 

I have lost half of my monthly stipend in just few hours. I would have felt better, that Barath lost all his stipend.

Within 24 hours, “Super Star to Comedian”, “Warren Buffet to Beggar”… Guess, what my inner voice would have told… U may Guess “Arasiyalla idhellam satharanamappa….”, but it told “Andavan vechan paaruda aapu”…

The day was the only day in my life I went to temple for the sake of peace of mind. This day-trading disturbed my sleep for the next one week.

After this, you may think that I have quitted day-trading, but after a week, my mind voice told me “Ha.. Ha... Arasiyalla idhellam satharanamappa….”. The day-trading and I were closely associated till 2008. After that, we parted ways.

Experience learned:

Never indulge in day-trading, when a partner visit is due.
Never quit day-trading.

Experience we can learn from this experiment:

Warren Buffet once said, “Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destructions”.
I would say “Day-trading is a cube of derivatives”, but we never learn from other mistakes. 

We will accept it, only if we have done a mistake. That too, we won’t say it in public, because we never give up our ego.

Still, if you want to day-trade in stocks, my suggestion is never day-trade in stock with 100% of your money, just allocate less than 10%.

If you think, who is this kid to suggest us, I would humbly request you to never day-trade in stock with 100%, please borrow 100% more from others, put all 200% in day-trading. In the next three months (maximum), if you have put all your money in the first two weeks of that three months, you will become deaf  automatically when you hear the word “Day-trading”.



Finally, the Great Research Tip:

During my first week, the only best thing I have done is subscribed to The Economic Times Newspaper. While running through the numbers in the Stock Quotes page, I stopped at the quote of then market-darling “Infosys”. It had Day-High (High traded price of the day) @ 3000 and Day-Low(Low traded price of the day) @ 2880.

The difference is 120/-. I thought, if I sell 100000 shares @ 3020 and buy-back @ 2880 or the opposite, I will become a crorepathi in a day.

Experience learned:

I can’t do that.

Experience we can learn from this Great tip:

You can’t. Reasons you find it yourself.

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